What's a Good Win Rate?

When you use MrCFB you should look for formulas with win rates of at least 57%, that would be a "good" formula (although it depends on the season). We have had little problem developing formulas with win rates of 60% or more (see some of the sample formulas) and even though these are "hindsight" numbers they tend to do quite well in current games also. You have to remember that these are formulas that have no knowledge of weather , injuries , rivalries etc. so to pick 60% based on just the numbers is quite good. When you add in your knowledge of each game you should be looking at another 4% - 5%. Does that mean you should quit your day job? Absolutely not! This IS gambling you can lose just as easily as you can win.

Always remember the Buster Douglas / Mike Tyson fight , I know at this point everyone says THEY knew Buster Douglas was going to beat Mike Tyson, but at the time NO ONE was picking him to win. That fight should always be in the back of your mind, because on any given day the worst team in the NFL can beat the best team in the NFL.



Copyright 2007 Richard Tolliver / Tolliver Software. All rights reserved.