An average week with Mr.NFL may go something like this:
Tuesday - Thursday (or Friday or Saturday)
1) Download the stats file and Import the stats into the database.
2) Go to the Stats screen and get a printout of the stats using whatever database method you like.(We recommend at least 2 printouts, 1 season to date, 1 a rolling average of the last 3 - 4 games)
3) Go to the Predictions screen and get a preliminary picks sheet using the consensus option.
4) Fire up the Test Formula form with a range of numbers in the variables to come up with the best formulas for the current season. Depending on the range of numbers and variables you enter this can take a LONG time to run. If you don't have much time, try the option for quick mode, or set some of the options to smaller ranges. Things like Power Ratings, and a large rolling average range increase the time this takes to run exponentially so for a quick test keep these to a smaller range or just a single number.
This should give you a pretty good idea of which games to concentrate on. You should study the stats for mismaches and make notes of these on the sheet . The simplified stats make this easy to spot (especially if you set it to letters). You should also scan the newspaper for any important injuries and make note of these on one of the sheets also.
1) Wake up bright and early and grab the newspaper. Look for key injuries, bad weather, or anything that might have an effect on the outcome of a game your interested in. Also call your man and get the late lines. You can enter these by clicking the Enter Lines button.
2) Go to the predictions screen (in MrCFB) and click on the Web Information button. We'll post picks / information about the games and the program there for you (in case you don't have time to search it down yourself)
3) Then go to the Other Factors screen. Here you can give a point value to all those 'other factors' you've been noting. You can also make notes on why you've given these point values.
4) Go back to the Predictions and use your standard formulas and the one(s) you generated with the test screen and then click on the Use other factors button, this will factor in the point values you entered in the "other factors" screen and give you new predicted scores and picks.
Generally, We do not recommend playing games that have too many variables in them because they are too hard to predict. If there are a couple injuries and the weather is bad, and one team is coming off their bye week etc. We recommend staying away from the game. There is just too much to take into account.
Sunday Afternoon/Night/ - Monday Night
Sit back at your home / favorite sports bar / gambling spot and enjoy the games. Hopefully, you'll make a few bucks and have a good time to boot! Just remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose. It takes all the fun out of the games.
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned" - from "The Color of Money"
Copyright © 2007 Richard Tolliver / Tolliver Software. All rights reserved.